You don’t agree? Try it yourself at RealClearPolitics.

(H/T) Sonia.

“Then I found myself falling toward the middle of a small lake in the city of New York Hanoi, with two broken lobbyists arms, a broken campaign leg, and an angry crowd of stock brokers and CEOs waiting to greet me. I was dumped in a retirement home dark cell, and left to die. I didn’t feel so tough anymore.”

“From now on you’re in the getting fucked by us business.“

Siena New York Poll:
With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue
Obama’s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June
Obama Seen As Stronger Than McCain on 4 of 6 Issues;
Voters See McCain As Better Than Obama on 4 of 6 of Attributes

Loudonville, NY. Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

- Polls are about reliable as the stock market of late. The college’s numbers don’t jive with the big boys. All I know for sure is…McCain is kicking Obama’s ass in the lawn sign and bumper sticker contest. 5 to 1, compared to about 60-40 in the Bush-Kerry contest of 04′.

The West Begins to Doubt Georgian Leader

“Today, we are all Georgians,” Republican presidential candidate John McCain declared. The neoconservative commentator Robert Kagan compared the Russian action with the Nazis’ 1938 invasion of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia. And in a meeting with US Vice President Richard Cheney, Saakashvili was assured of Washington’s support for his most fervent wish: admission to NATO.

But now, five weeks after the end of the war in the Caucasus, the winds have shifted in America. Even Washington is beginning to suspect that Saakashvili, a friend and ally, could in fact be a gambler — someone who triggered the bloody five-day war and then told the West bold-faced lies.

-Shoot your mouth off, ask questions latter. Shit I’m surprised anyone is asking questions. Who wants to prove the dirty hippie bloggers right again.

Strip of Iraq ‘on the Verge of Exploding’
Kurds Extend Role Beyond Autonomous Borders, Angering Arabs

By Amit R. Paley
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, September 13, 2008; A01

JALAWLA, Iraq — Kurdish leaders have expanded their authority over a roughly 300-mile-long swath of territory beyond the borders of their autonomous region in northern Iraq, stationing thousands of soldiers in ethnically mixed areas in what Iraqi Arabs see as an encroachment on their homelands.

The assertion of greater Kurdish control, which has taken hold gradually since the war began and caused tens of thousands of Arabs to flee their homes, is viewed by Iraqi Arab and U.S. officials as a provocative and potentially destabilizing action.

“Quickly moving into those areas to try and change the population and flying KRG flags in areas that are specifically not under the KRG control right now — that is counterproductive and increases tensions,” said Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, referring to the Kurdistan Regional Government, which administers the autonomous region.

The long-cherished dream of many of the world’s 25 million ethnic Kurds is an independent state that encompasses parts of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. All but Iraq adamantly oppose Kurdish autonomy, much less a Kurdish state. Iraqi Kurds continue to insist they are not seeking independence, even as they unilaterally expand the territory they control in Iraq.

The predominantly Arab-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in recent weeks has sent the Iraqi army to drive Kurdish forces out of some of the lands, ordering Kurdish troops, known as pesh merga, to retreat north of the boundary of the Kurdish autonomous region.

The face-off between the Iraqi army and pesh merga has stoked fears of Arab-Kurdish strife just as Iraqis begin to recover from years of sectarian violence between Shiites and Sunnis.

Without doubt the surge as a military tactic has been a successful exercise. As just a piece of an overall strategy–an ill defined, ideologically bankrupt, failing strategy–it has done all that anyone could ever expect. Now, how do you define victory in an occupation?

A sure way for Obama to lose, if it isn’t already inevitable, would be to follow this advice. Sonia is operating on a couple of different false premises when she gives advice like, “Stop obsessing about Sarah Palin…stop trying to tie McCain to Bush…start talking about gas prices…start talking about immigration,” and, “Don’t run the general election like you have run your primary elections.”

Here is the deal; prior to the Republican convention Obama’s polls were headed down for two reasons, and two reasons only. The number one reason was over exposure. Everyone I asked about the election from around last April till the Conventions had a variation of one of two reactions, “So it’s going to be Hillary against Barack, and “I’m sick of seeing Obama every where I turn.” The Democratic primaries were so intensely fought and subsequently covered by the media that more than one person I asked thought Hillary and Barack were already the nominees of two opposing parties, it was as if McCain didn’t even exist and the whole election hinged on whether or not Obama was to much of a risk. It was pure over exposure, and Barack’s European tour was the tipping point. There is nothing his campaign has done smarter than send him on vacation to Hawaii and prominently feature the Clintons in Denver. Killed two birds with one stone.

The second issue that lead to Barack Obama’s drop in the polls was the muddying of his message. No, not the “change” message. The other stuff. This I can only speak to from a personal perspective, but week after week, throughout July and August, hearing reports of position changes on Iraq, nuclear power, off-shore drilling, and a host of other topics drove me fucking nuts and made me throw up my hands and shout what’s the fucking point?!
[Read more]